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Combination of different types of ensembles for the adaptive simulation of probabilistic flood forecasts:hindcasts for the Mulde 2002 extreme event
adaptive simulation probabilistic flood forecasts extreme event
2009/10/30
Flood forecasts are essential to issue reliable flood warnings and to initiate flood control measures on time. The accuracy and the lead time of the predictions for head waters primarily depend on the...
Evaluation of a probabilistic hydrometeorological forecast system
hydrometeorological forecast system quantitative precipitation forecasts
2009/7/22
Medium range hydrological forecasts in mesoscale catchments are only possible with the use of hydrological models driven by meteorological forecasts, which in particular contribute quantitative preci...
Flood forecasting using medium-range probabilistic weather prediction
Ensemble Prediction Systems Numerical Weather Prediction European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
2009/5/18
Following the developments in short- and medium-range weather forecasting over the last decade, operational flood forecasting also appears to show a shift from a so-called single solution or 'best gu...
Verification tools for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables
hydrological variables Verification tools
2009/5/8
In the present paper we describe some methods for verifying and evaluating probabilistic forecasts of hydrological variables. We propose an extension to continuous-valued variables of a verification ...
The european flood alert system EFAS–Part 2：Statistical skill assessment of probabilistic and deterministic operational forecasts
European Flood Alert System Joint Research Centre
2009/4/27
Since 2005 the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) has been producing probabilistic hydrological forecasts in pre-operational mode at the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission. EFAS ai...