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16th International Symposium on Advances in Seasonal to Decadal Prediction
16th International Symposium Advances in Seasonal to Decadal Prediction
2017/8/31
Due to the considerable socio-economic and ecological impacts of the climate, many efforts have been made to predict year-to-year climate variability (e.g., ENSO) and climate changes over the past dec...
The impact of periodization methods on the kinetic energy spectra for limited-area numerical weather prediction models
kinetic energy spectra impact of periodization methods
2015/3/5
The paper deals with the comparison of the most
common periodization methods used to obtain spectral fields
of limited-area models for numerical weather prediction.
Analogue-dynamical Prediction of Numerical Model Errors in the Mid-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River
Principal Component Analysis Numerical Model Errors Analogue-dynamical Prediction
2011/8/16
Abstract: A new prediction error correction scheme based on 74 circulation characteristics data provided by Weather Diagnostic Forecasting Division of National Climate Center, which is designed to dev...
Evaluation of stratocumulus cloud prediction in the Met Office forecast model during VOCALS-REx
stratocumulus cloud prediction the Met Office forecast model VOCALS-REx
2010/11/30
Observations in the subtropical southeast Pacific obtained during the VOCALS-REx field experiment are used to evaluate the representation of stratocumulus cloud in the Met Office forecast model and to...
Skill prediction of local weather forecasts based on the ECMWF ensemble
Skill prediction local weather forecasts ECMWF ensemble
2009/11/12
Ensemble Prediction has become an essential part of numerical weather forecasting. In this paper we investigate the ability of ensemble forecasts to provide an a priori estimate of the expected foreca...
Verification of intense precipitation forecasts from single models and ensemble prediction systems
intense precipitation forecasts single models ensemble prediction systems
2009/11/12
The performance of single models and ensemble prediction systems has been investigated with respect to quantitative precipitation forecasts. Evaluation is based on the potential economic value of + 72...
Performance of the ARPA-SMR limited-area ensemble prediction system:two flood cases
ARPA-SMR limited-area ensemble prediction system flood cases
2009/11/12
The performance of the ARPA-SMR Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), generated by nesting a limited-area model on selected members of the ECMWF targeted ensemble, is evaluated for two flood...
Testing the performance of three nonlinear methods of time seriesanalysis for prediction and downscaling of European daily temperatures
nonlinear methods time seriesanalysis European daily temperatures
2009/11/11
We investigated the usability of the method of local linear models (LLM), multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP NN) and radial basis function neural network (RBF NN) for the construction of tempor...
Prediction of minimum temperatures in an alpine region by linear and non-linear post-processing of meteorological models
minimum temperatures alpine region linear and non-linear post-processing meteorological models
2009/11/3
Model Output Statistics (MOS) refers to a method of post-processing the direct outputs of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in order to reduce the biases introduced by a coarse horizontal reso...
Methodology for prediction and estimation of consequences of possible atmospheric releases of hazardous matter：“Kursk”submarine study
Methodology hazardous matter Kursk
2009/3/10
There are objects with some periods of higher than normal levels of risk of accidental atmospheric releases (nuclear, chemical, biological, etc.). Such accidents or events may occur due to natural haz...
A global off-line model of size-resolved aerosol microphysics: I. Model development and prediction of aerosol properties
global off-line model size-resolved aerosol microphysics aerosol properties
2009/2/16
A GLObal Model of Aerosol Processes (GLOMAP) has been developed as an extension to the TOMCAT 3-D Eulerian off-line chemical transport model. GLOMAP simulates the evolution of the global aerosol size ...
Evaluation of high-resolution forecasts with the non-hydrostaticnumerical weather prediction model Lokalmodell for urban air pollutionepisodes in Helsinki, Oslo and Valencia
high-resolution forecast non-hydrostaticnumerical weather prediction model urban air pollutionepisodes
2009/1/9
The operational numerical weather prediction model Lokalmodell LM with 7\,km horizontal resolution was evaluated for forecasting meteorological conditions during observed urban air pollution episodes....
Statistical diagnostic and correction of a chemistry-transport model for the prediction of total column ozone
chemistry-transport model column ozone
2008/12/31
In this paper, we introduce a statistical method for examining and adjusting chemical-transport models. We illustrate the findings with total column ozone predictions, based on the University of Illin...
Two adaptive radiative transfer schemes for numerical weather prediction models
adaptive radiative transfer schemes numerical weather prediction models
2008/12/24
Radiative transfer calculations in atmospheric models are computationally expensive, even if based on simplifications such as the δ-two-stream approximation. In most weather prediction models these pa...