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Nowcasting Business Cycles Using Toll Data
business cycles data mining evaluating forecasts macroeconomic forecasting new products transportation production forecasting nowcasting telemetry
2012/11/1
Nowcasting has been a challenge in the recent economic crisis. We introduce the Toll Index, a new monthly indicator for business cycle forecasting and demonstrate its relevance using German data. The ...
Productivity trends in business cycles: a visual essay。
Lumpy Capital, Labor Market Search and Employment Dynamics over Business Cycles
labor market search lumpy capital business cycle job creation job destruction
2010/7/1
This paper incorporates labor search frictions into a model with lumpy investment to explain a set of firm-size-related facts about the United States labor market dynamics over business cycles. Contra...