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The sequential propensity household projection model
Australia household projection household scenarios minimal household units sequential propensity model
2014/11/24
Background: The standard method of projecting living arrangements and households in Australia and New Zealand is the ‘propensity model', a type of extended headship rate model. Unfortunately it posses...
Schelling’s Segregation Model：Parameters, scaling, and aggregation
clusters segregation simulation statistics
2009/10/30
Thomas Schelling proposed a simple spatial model to illustrate how, even with relatively mild assumptions on each individual's nearest neighbor preferences, an integrated city would likely unravel to ...
Effects of a Replication of a Multicomponent Model for Preventing Adolescent Pregnancy In Three Kansas Communities
Preventing Adolescent Pregnancy teenage pregnancy
2009/9/15
Context: A significant amount of attention has been devoted to the complex issue of teenage pregnancy and to programs for reducing pregnancy among adolescents. Careful evaluations of such programs are...
Sexual behaviour patterns in South Africa and their association with the spread of HIV：insights from a mathematical model
AIDS/HIV sexual behavior simulation model South Africa
2009/9/14
This paper aims to quantify the effects of different types of sexual risk behaviour on the spread of HIV in South Africa. A mathematical model is developed to simulate changes in numbers of sexual p...
Old Insights and New Approaches：Fertility Analysis and Tempo Adjustment in the Age-Parity Model
Fertility Analysis Age-Parity Model Tempo Adjustment
2009/3/16
In this article we provide an overview of traditional and recent methods for the investigation of period fertility, emphasising in particular aspects of the analysis that are relevant in contemporary ...
Population aging and the extended family in Taiwan A new model for analyzing and projecting living arrangements
family household living arrangements population aging Taiwan
2008/12/9
Population aging produces changes in the availability of kin with uncertain implications for extended living arrangements. We propose a highly stylized model that can be used to analyze and project ag...
Elaboration of the Coale-McNeil Nuptiality Model as The Generalized Log Gamma Distribution A New Identity and Empirical Enhancements
Coale-McNeil nuptiality model fertility projection first marriage schedule generalized gamma distribution marriage nuptiality
2008/12/9
The Coale-McNeil nuptiality model is a particular case of the generalized log gamma distribution model. In this paper, we demonstrate that recognition of this connection allows an expansion of the pos...
A system of model fertility schedules with graphically intuitive parameters
age-specific fertility age-specific rates Coale-Trussell estimation fertility models splines
2008/12/5
I propose and examine a new family of models for age-specific fertility schedules, in which three index ages determine the schedule's shape. The new system is based on constrained quadratic splines. I...
Elaboration of the Coale-McNeil Nuptiality Model as The Generalized Log Gamma Distribution A New Identity and Empirical Enhancements
Coale-McNeil nuptiality model fertility projection first marriage schedule generalized gamma distribution marriage nuptiality
2008/12/5
The Coale-McNeil nuptiality model is a particular case of the generalized log gamma distribution model. In this paper, we demonstrate that recognition of this connection allows an expansion of the pos...
Period Fertility in Russia since 1930 an application of the Coale-Trussell fertility model
fertility fertility models historical demography period fertility Russia
2008/12/1
In this paper we present a detailed demographic analysis of the change of period fertility that occurred since 1930, based on individual retrospective data, collected in the most recent (five percent)...
Toward a General Model for Populations with Changing Rates
dynamic mathematical demography multistate population models stable population
2008/12/1
Formal demography has yet to move beyond assuming that demographic rates are constant over time, an assumption that is both unrealistic and constraining. To generalize the fixed rate stable model to t...