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Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model
Bayesian Bayesian approach England model averaging population forecasting Wales
2014/11/25
Background: Population forecasts are widely used for public policy purposes. Methods to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts tend to ignore model uncertainty and to be based on a single model.Objecti...
Modeling reproductive decisions with simple heuristics
age at first marriage ecological rationality heuristics mate choice mate search parental investment
2014/11/25
Background: Many of the reproductive decisions that humans make happen without much planning or forethought, arising instead through the use of simple choice rules or heuristics that involve relativel...