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Dynamic Estimation of Credit Rating Transition Probabilities
Credit Rating Transition Probabilities
2010/11/3
We present a continuous-time maximum likelihood estimation methodology for credit rating
transition probabilities, taking into account the presence of censored data. We perform
rolling estimates of ...
Defining, Estimating and Using Credit Term Structures. Part 3: Consistent CDS-Bond Basis
Estimating Credit Term Structures Consistent CDS-Bond Basis
2010/11/3
In the third part of this series we introduce consistent relative value measures for CDS-Bond
basis trades using the bond-implied CDS term structure derived from fitted survival rate
curves. We expl...
Defining, Estimating and Using Credit Term Structures. Part 2: Consistent Risk Measures
Estimating Term Structures Consistent Risk Measures
2010/11/3
In the second part of our series we suggest new definitions of credit bond duration and
convexity that remain consistent across all levels of credit quality including deeply distressed bonds and intr...
Defining, Estimating and Using Credit Term Structures. Part 1: Consistent Valuation Measures
Defining, Estimating Consistent Valuation Measures
2010/11/3
In this three-part series of papers, we argue that the conventional spread measures are not
well defined for credit-risky bonds and introduce a set of credit term structures which correct
for the bi...
Correlation breakdown, copula credit default models and arbitrage
Correlation breakdown copula credit default models arbitrage
2010/11/2
The recent ‘correlation breakdown’ in the modeling of credit default swaps,in which model correlations had to exceed 100% in order to reproduce market prices of supersenior tranches, is analyzed and a...
Credit derivatives: instruments of hedging and factors of instability. The example of ?Credit Default Swaps? on French reference entities
credit derivatives credit risk credit default swap inter-temporal relations between markets
2010/11/3
Through a long-period analysis of the inter-temporal relations between the French markets for credit default swaps (CDS), shares and bonds between 2001 and 2008, this article shows how a financial inn...
The Spread of the Credit Crisis: View from a Stock Correlation Network
networks econophysics equities stock market correlation credit crisis
2010/10/29
The credit crisis roiling the world’s financial markets will likely take years and entire careers to fully understand and analyze. A short empirical investigation of the current trends, however,demons...
Climbing Down from the Top: Single Name Dynamics in Credit Top Down Models
Single Name Dynamics Credit Top Down Models
2010/10/29
In the top-down approach to multi-name credit modeling, calculation of singe name sensitivities
appears possible, at least in principle, within the so-called random thinning (RT)
procedure which dis...
LGD credit risk model: estimation of capital with parameter uncertainty using MCMC
LGD credit risk model capital parameter MCMC
2010/12/13
This paper investigates the impact of parameter uncertainty on capital estimate in the well-known extended Loss Given Default (LGD) model with systematic dependence between default and recovery. We de...
Explicit Computations for a Filtering Problem with Point Process Observations with Applications to Credit Risk
Filtering Problem Applications Credit Risk
2010/12/13
We consider the intensity-based approach for the modeling of default times of one or more companies. In this approach the default times are defined as the jump times of a Cox process, which is a Poiss...
BSLP: Markovian Bivariate Spread-Loss Model for Portfolio Credit Derivatives
Markovian Bivariate Spread-Loss Model Portfolio Credit Derivatives
2010/10/29
BSLP is a two-dimensional dynamic model of interacting portfolio-level loss and loss intensity
processes. It is constructed as a Markovian, short-rate intensity model, which facilitates fast lattice ...
In this work we develop a tractable structural model with analytical default probabilities depending on a random default barrier and possibly random volatil-ity ideally associated with a scenario base...
Credit Default Swap Calibration and Equity Swap Valuation under Counterparty Risk with a Tractable Structural Model
Credit Derivatives Structural Models Black Cox Model Credit Default Swaps
2010/11/3
In this paper we develop a tractable structural model with analytical default probabilities depending on some dynamics parameters, and we show how to cal-ibrate the model using a chosen number of Cred...